Cryptocurrency Payment for Crime Estimation

This tool estimates the proportion of cryptocurrency transactions used for illicit activities by analyzing known crime data and adjusting base rates. Use the controls below to adjust the variables and see how they impact the estimated illicit volume over time.

The estimation model is based on the following mathematical formulas:

Estimated Illicit Volume per Day:

$$ V_{\text{illicit}}(d) = \sum_{i=1}^{N} C_i(y) \times B_i \times \left(1 + \frac{I}{100}\right) \times \frac{V_{\text{total}}(d)}{V_{\text{total}}(y)} $$

Where:

• \( V_{\text{illicit}}(d) \): Estimated illicit volume on day \( d \)
• \( C_i(y) \): Known illicit volume for category \( i \) in year \( y \)
• \( B_i \): Adjustment factor for category \( i \)
• \( I \): Increase percentage for estimated categories
• \( V_{\text{total}}(d) \): Total transaction volume on day \( d \)
• \( V_{\text{total}}(y) \): Total transaction volume in year \( y \)

Adjusted Total Transaction Volume per Day:

$$ V_{\text{total_adjusted}}(d) = V_{\text{total}}(d) \times \left(1 - \frac{D}{100}\right) $$

Where:

• \( V_{\text{total_adjusted}}(d) \): Adjusted total transaction volume on day \( d \)
• \( V_{\text{total}}(d) \): Original total transaction volume on day \( d \)
• \( D \): Discount percentage applied to base rates

The discount factor adjusts the overall estimate of volume.